Analysis
6/3/2012

Carriers Freight Review

Carriers Market Report W9

CAPE
 
In  the  Atlantic  the  week  opened  with  Tubarao/Qingdao  paying
between $20.50 and $20.65 for mid-March cargoes and between
$20.70  and  $20.85  for  end  March  -mid  April  stems.  A  trans-
Atlantic  run  was  done  twice  at  $9.25  for  coal  Puerto  Bolivar  to
Rotterdam.  There  was  numerous  concluded  deals  on  the  key
route W.Australia/Qingdao emerging in the Pacific basin all done
at $7.90. Period business in the east paid $14,500  and  $12,300
daily respectively for modern tonnage on 14-17 months  and 4-7
months  periods  -  both  for  prompt  deliveries.  Mid-week  Atlantic
saw  no  change  with  rates  holding  at  last  dones,  but  very  little
business reported done. Ubu/Beilun paid a steady $20.80. Rates
in  the  Pacific  trended  sideways.  Dampier/Qingdao  and  Port
Hedland /Qingdao held at $7.90 but there were no many "fresh"
cargoes and it is obvious that the market needs another injection
of cargoes to see any improvement. As the week drew to a close
new  business  in  the  Atlantic  was  very  scarce.  A  Narvik/Qatar
cargo  was  fixed  at  $20.25.  Rates  drifted  sideways  in  the  Pacific
with  little  fresh  inquiry  in  the  market.  Abbots  Point/China  paid
$9.50 whereas Port Hedland/Qingdao remained at $7.90. On the
time  charter  front  a  15  years  old  vessel  151,982  -dwt  secured
$7,000  daily  for  an  Australian  round.  The  Baltic  Capesize  index
saw  no  change  this  week  remaining  at  1525.  The  Time  Charter
Average       route       gained       $58       to       $5,979       daily.
 
PANAMAX
 
ATLANTIC
 
A  week  very  similar  to  the  previous  one  with  rates  sliding
downwards  on  a  daily  basis.  There  still is  a long list  of  available
tonnage and just not enough cargoes to bring balance. Activity is
once again focused on East Coast South America but the supply of
tonnage is simply overwhelming the  fresh  cargoes  that enter the
market. Transatlantic trips are being paid below $5,000 and those
to  the  east  around  $14,000.  Some  indicative  fixtures  reported
were:  Lady  Maria  Luisa  2007  76,662  dwt  delivery  Recalada  5/10
March   trip   redelivery   Skaw   -Cape   Passero   $7,000   daily   +
$200,000  bb  –  Cargill.  Alpha  Afovos  2001  74,427  dwt  delivery
Malta 27 February/3 March trip via Black Sea redelivery Egyptian
Mediterranean $5,500 daily – Glencore. KT Birdie 2011 74,866 dwt
delivery  Gibraltar  7/9  March  trip  via  Kamsar  redelivery  Stade
$4,500  daily – Oldendorff. Lake Dahlia 2009  78,802 dwt  delivery
passing  Gibraltar  10/12  March  trip  via  East  Coast  South  America
redelivery  Far  East  $15000  daily  -  Alfred  C.Toepfer.  Good  Luck
2011 75,019  dwt  delivery Praia  Mole 15/25  March trip redelivery
Singapore -Japan intention steels $14,500 daily plus $450,000 bb
- STX Pan Ocean. Great Luck 1998 71,399 dwt delivery Jorf Lasfar
5/10 March trip via EC South America redelivery Singapore-Japan
$14,500  daily  -  Chinese  charterer.  Nuri  Bey  2011  80598  dwt
delivery aps US Gulf 12/14 March trip redelivery Singapore-Japan
$15000  daily  plus  $450,000  bb  -  Archer  Daniels  Midland.  Darya
Jyoti  2010  80545  dwt  delivery  aps  USEC  12/17  March  trip
redelivery  Singapore-  Japan  approximately  $14,500  daily  plus
$450,000 bb – MUR.
 
PACIFIC
 
 
The pacific panamax market was overall stable the whole week.
There     was     interest     from     Charterers     to     take     lme
panamaxes/kamsarmaxes  in  Far  East  for  short  period  up  to  1
year around $9,500 per day to $11,500 per day (for 1 year). The
pacific round voyage rate level for lme panamaxes/kamsarmaxes
was  ranging  during  the  whole  week  between  $7,500  per  day  to
$9,500 per day level depending on vessel's position, the business
fixed  and  the  specifications  of  the  vessel.  For  Indonesia  round
voyage lme panamaxes got fixed delivery south China at $8,500
per day.
 
 
HANDYSIZE/HANDYMAX  
ECSA/WAFRICA/USG
 
Handy business in the Atlantic trailed slowly into the weekend, with
rates  very  'ho-hum'  according  to  sources.  There  were  rumours  of
tonnage  fixed  at  port  cost/bunkers  only,  but  confirmation  was
lacking.  For  east  coast  South  America  business,  grain  business
reportedly  paid  $34.50  for  spot/prompt  business  to  Algeria.
Reports of a better Atlantic Handy market was all talk as details of
improved  concluded  business  has  yet  to  emerge.  A  trip  out  was
reported done  at $19,750 for a supramax There seemed to be an
uptick for rates in the Atlantic Handy sector, with sources reporting
supramax tonnage fixing at $14,000 daily plus a $300,000 bb for a
trip NCSA/Far  East. A modern Handysize fixed ECSA/western  Med
business at $12,350 daily for mid-March dates. It emerged that the
2011-built 55,783 dwt E.R.Basel went to D'Amico recently for spot
delivery in the U.S. Gulf for 3-5 months trading with redelivery in
the  Atlantic  at  $9,500  daily.  The  2008-built  32,162  dwt  Orient
Dream  was  fixed  to  STX  Pan  Ocean  for  March  05-07  delivery
Casablanca  for  12-months  trading  with  redelivery  worldwide  at
$9,500 daily. 1997-built 45,600 dwt Global Ocean has gone to an
unnamed  charterer  for  March  01-05  delivery  La  Pallice  on  a  trip
with redelivery West Africa at $7,500 daily. Norden has the 2005-
built  33,733  dwt  Chamchuri  Naree  for  March  04-06  delivery  wwr
Up River on a trip with redelivery Manzanillo at $15,000 daily. For
voyage  business in the Atlantic, Bunge reportedly fixed a TBN for
spot/prompt loading 20,000-30,000 tons barley from Bahia Blanca
to Algeria at $34.50. 2005-built 56,029 dwt Fantasy Star has gone
to MUR for March  10-17 delivery north coast South America on  a
trip  with  redelivery  Singapore-  Japan  at  $14,000  daily  plus  a
ballast  bonus  of  $300,000.  The  2011-built  30,000  dwt  Niki  C  will
earn $13,000 daily from an undisclosed charterer for March 06-08
delivery  aps  Santos  on  a  trip  with  redelivery  in  the  western
Mediterranean/Casablanca range. Also unnamed was the charterer
of the 2006-built 28,447 dwt Shimanami Star, taking the vessel for
March 10-20 delivery aps Recalada on a trip with redelivery in the
western  Mediterranean  at  $12,350  daily.  2011-built  56,000  dwt
Vienna Wood N going to Norden for Atlantic delivery on a trip with
redelivery Singapore/Japan at $19,750 daily. Cobelfret was said to
have fixed a TBN for March 08-17 loading 55,000 tons 10% bauxite
from       Trombetas       to       Point       Comfort       at       $14,50
 
CONT/MED/BSEA
Another  week  is  over  with  some  activity  in  the  area.  There  were
some fresh cargoes due  to the weather improvement. There were
reported some period fixtures especially for supramax vessels. 'Wu
Chang Hai' 1998 27,635 dwt delivery North Spain 7/10 March trip
via  Continent  redelivery  East  Mediterranean  $6,500  daily  –  cnr.
'Trident  Challenger'  2010  57,000  dwt  delivery  Continent  early
March  trip  via  Cape  of  Good  Hope  redeliver  East  Coast  India
approximately  $13,250  daily  –  EBC.  'Christos  Theo'  2010  56,838
dwt  delivery  Bourgas  3/4  March  3/5  months  trading  redelivery
worldwide  $11,750  daily  –  Hudson.  'Royal  Fairness'  2011  55,654
dwt  delivery  Sea  of  Marmara  spot  about  3/5  months  trading
redelivery   worldwide   approximately   $10,750   daily   –   Cargill.
'Apageon'  2005  52,483  dwt  delivery  Diliskelesi  spot  3/5  months
trading  redelivery  worldwide  $9,500  daily  –  ABT.  'Orient  Dream'
2008 32,162 dwt delivery Casablanca 5/7 March 12 months trading
redelivery  worldwide  $9,500  daily  -  STX  Pan  Ocean.  'Calypso
Colossus'  2009   55,100  dwt  delivery  UK  Continent  spot  trip
redelivery USAC approximately $2000 daily – Norden.
FAR EAST
 
Market  remained  very  firm.  Nickel  ore  cargoes  providing  very
good support to the market and nickel ore traders able to obtain
big  premium,  hearing  nice  supramaxes  ex  South  China  were
trading  at  15's  for  round  voyage.  Short  period  rated  remained
around 10,500/11,000 depending vessel's specs.
VLCC
 
In the Middle East market, well in excess of 30 fresh fixtures were
reported  this  week,  including  Chinese  COA  lifting's.  Of  these,
most were  bound for  Eastern  destinations. But,  also a couple of
AG/USWC runs were concluded in addition to two or three of the
normal milk-run  fixtures Saudi to  the  Mexican Gulf – all in all a
healthy  amount  of  activity.  Alas,  it  did  nothing  to  lift  owners’
spirit, if anything it appears the week will end on a much weaker
note  than it started. Bunker prices  are  sniffing on all-time highs
on the back of the galloping crude oil prices, with futures for the
same  trading  even  higher,  adding  insult  to  injury.  The  second
decade  of  activity  held  the  key  to  the  week  –  owners  were
perhaps slower to realize the level of volume being ‘spirited’ away
quite quietly and efficiently with little or no effect on rates. The
bullish sentiment faded across the week with the realization that
3rd decade activity had begun in earnest. Those that had held out
in hope of better returns are now merely faced with the reality of
increased waiting time and softer rates. At the time of writing the
author expects ‘last done’ AG/Long East (W52.5) to be under-cut,
which should in turn lead charterers into prolonging their entering
of  the  market  ,  putting  further  pressure  on  the  sentiment
amongst owners. Going forward the all too familiar dynamic looks
set to be played out across next week – the waiting game, those
with the patience and belief in volumes, be it of available steel or
of  Crude,  will  ultimately  emerge  with  the  spoils  –  though  again
it’s  all  relative  against  the  continuing  poor  re-turns.  In  the
Atlantic basin, activity held at recent, relatively robust levels with
a  few  fixtures  reported  ex  West  Africa,  all of  which  were  bound
for  the  East,  with  rates  in  the  mid  W50’ies.The  list  of  "natural"
positions in the Atlantic remain short and well balanced, however,
with a falling rates in the Middle East Gulf more Owners will again
look  at  ballasting  their  ships  to  West  Africa,  giving  Charterers  a
larger  choice of tonnage. Trans -Atlantic VLCC  activity has been
virtually  non-existent  as  chartering  Suezmaxes  proves  more
profitable in the current rate climate.
 
 
 
 
SUEZMAX
The Suezmax  market had  a softer sentiment this week and saw
rates moved down on Western markets. In West Africa, 130,000
tonne rates for U.S Gulf discharge moved down from W75 to W70
by  midweek  and  back  up  to  W72.5  for  close  of  business  on
FrIday.  Over-supply  of  tonnage  was  the  main  reason  for  this
downward  movement  as  the  West  African  programme  was
covered  up  until  20th  March  dates.  The  Black  Sea  Suezmax
market  saw  rates  drop  W2.5/5  points  for  UKC-Med  discharge
down  towards  W72.5/75  levels  for  135,000  tonne  stems.  Cargo
enquiry picked up towards the end of the week but on the whole
tonnage  was  always  in  adequate  supply  for  this  market.  The
Cross Med Suezmax market proved softer by W10 points over the
course  of  this  period  and  settled  at  130kt  x  W70  again  due  to
over-supply.  Eastbound  and  Trans-Atlantic  movements  were
limited   this   week   and   generally   both   had   a   steady   feel.
Med/Singapore  around  $3.6  million  and  Med/U.S  Gulf  around
130kt  x  W65.
 
AFRAMAX
 
North Sea
 
 
 
Throughout the week in the UKC and Baltic, excess tonnage has
made  way  for  low  rates  for  voyages  throughout  the  area.
Although no lower numbers were re-ported than the W77.5 for a
Primorsk/UKC  voyage  and  W85  for  a  Cross-UKC  voyage,  the
levels  at  the  start  of  the  week,  no  higher  numbers  were  seen
either which made for fixtures to be easily fixed at the same level
of the last done. Unless there is a big clear out of ships next week
it looks unlikely that the fixing level will in-crease as currently the
market is more competitive for owners looking to fix their ships
as many vessels still remain.  
 
 
Mediterranean
 
There was a busy start to the week and this allowed tonnage to
be thinned out as  the week went on however rates remained at
W82.5/85 Cross-Med and W87.5 ex Black Sea. By the end of the  
 
 
 
 
 
week  due  to  the  continued  flow  of  cargoes,  the  list  has  thinned
and  the  owners  are  trying  to  push  the  rates  up.  On  writing
owners are offering against a market quote Cross-Med in excess
of  W110,  with  several  other  cargoes  also  trading  we  expect  the
rates   to   reach   three   digit   levels   by   end   of   the   day.
 
Caribs
 
This  week  in  the  Caribs  started  very  quiet  and  with  rates  at  a
higher  level  from  the  week  before  it  looked  inevitable  that  the
fixing level would fall. After starting around the W125 level for a
Caribs/USG  voyage  and  despite  high  bunker  prices  and  some
disruption from fog in the USG, the fixing level by the end of the
week  moved  down  to  around  W110  as  the  buildup  of  tonnage
caused  by  the  quieter  market  allowed  for  multiple  offers  into
cargos and as a result reported fixtures were seen at lower levels.

Analysis

Bulker demolition has surged in recent years as the market has weakened. While scrapping volumes are still significantly lower than deliveries, the rise in recycling has nonetheless slowed fleet growth somewhat.
The freight rate war currently taking place between Asia and Europe, and between Asia and the US, and the further addition of new ships, will force carriers to resort to more slow steaming.
In recessions shipping sentiment can sometimes have a slightly schizophrenic feel. The more demolition mantra crops up again and again at conferences, which is fair enough. But it makes a strange bedfellow for the buy low sell high brigade who are desperately searching for cheap ships...

By Mike Corkhill

Last Summer, chemical tanker operators were looking forward to seeing a glimpse of light at the end of what promised to be quite a long tunnel. The majority agreed that the market rebound was still two years off and that the return to a balanced fleet, respectable freight rates and profitable operations was on the cards for 2014. The hatches would have to remain battened down until then.




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