Brazil is forecast to produce 10 million tonnes of wheat this season, up from a previous estimate of 9.67 million, agribusiness consultancy StoneX said on Wednesday, as farmers in the South American country continued their harvest.
Brazilian wheat farmers typically plant their crop in the second quarter and, depending on the state, finish harvesting it in December. The harvest for this season’s crop began in August.
Brazil is a net wheat importer, but farmers this year expanded theircultivation area and are expected to harvest a record crop.
According to the government, prospects are so good for Brazilian wheat going forward that the nation will be able to reduce import dependence and potentially become self-sufficient in wheat in 10 years.
Based on the domestic wheat crop cycle, Brazil’s wheat export season is strongest in the first half of the year.
In 2022, the country had already exported some 2.4 million tonnes in the period, more than twice as much as in the same months a year ago, as demand grew after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to data from grain exporters association Anec.
Russia and Ukraine account for about 30% of global wheat exports.
Given the heated demand for Brazilian wheat, StoneX also raised the country’s 2022/2023 wheat export projection to 2.8 million tonnes from 2.5 million tonnes.
Brazil’s wheat import forecast for this cycle was unchanged at 6.2 million tonnes, StoneX said.