Goldman Upgrades Commodity Outlook on Constrained Oil Supplies

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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. upgraded its outlook for commodities for the next three months because of disruptions to oil supply, while staying bearish on industrial metals and gold.

Supply constraints should support oil prices, but “physical re-balancing” is incomplete and Goldman remains neutral on commodities for the next 12 months, it said in a report e-mailed Wednesday. The bank is recommending investors buy oil and gas assets in equities and credit markets. It’s still bearish on industrial and precious metals.

“We continue to expect industrial metals price weakness, owing to a combination of excess supply and weak demand, and have the view that the support from China will be temporary,” said Goldman analysts led by Jeff Currie. “The outlook for metals continues to be bearish as supply curtailments come off in China and elsewhere.”

Commodities have rebounded this year led by gains in soy meal and silver amid better data from top consumer China, supply disruptions and expectations the Federal Reserve will curb the pace of interest-rate increases. Unexpected oil outages caused by everything from wildfires in Canada to pipeline attacks in Nigeria have meant the market has moved into a production deficit earlier than expected, Goldman said in a report dated May 15.

The bank is still bearish on gold after raising forecasts last week. Risks to commodities include lower-than-expected growth in China, political uncertainty in Europe and repricing of the Fed rate-hike cycle, Goldman said.

Source: Bloomberg

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