Russia’s wheat exports were 12% lower on the year at 12.8 million mt as of Oct. 7 for the 2021-22 (July-June) marketing year, the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance said Oct. 11.
In the week to Sept. 30, Russia’s cumulative wheat exports for marketing year 2021-22 stood at 12.2 million mt.
Turkey was the largest importer of wheat from Russia, with 2.9 million mt of wheat purchased so far in marketing year 2021-22. Egypt purchased 1.5 million mt wheat from Russia, while Saudi Arabia imported 700,000 mt.
S&P Global Platts Analytics had reduced its estimate for Russian wheat exports in marketing year 2021-22 to 36.5 million mt from its previous projection of 38.6 million mt. According to data from the US Department of Agriculture, Russia had shipped out 38.5 million mt of wheat in marketing year 2020-21.
The pace of Russian wheat exports has been slowing over the last few weeks due to rising taxes on wheat exports, traders said.
In August, the rapid growth in wheat prices spurred an increase in the wheat export tax, which weighed on exports.
Wheat prices rising
Platts assessed FOB Russia 12.5% protein wheat at $312.5/mt Oct. 8, up 25 cents from Oct. 7.
Over the past two weeks, Russia’s wheat prices have increased over 2.4%, likely due to tightening supply in the country and rising export tax on the crop.
The wheat tax is fixed at $58.70/mt for the week of Oct. 13-19, up 90 cents on the week, the Russian agricultural ministry said Oct. 8.
Russia had introduced the floating rate in June, replacing the fixed rate of Eur50/mt ($58.78/mt). The duty is applied when the export price of wheat exceeds $200/mt and is calculated as 70% of the difference between the market price and that benchmark.
As of Oct. 8, Russia harvested 75.8 million mt of wheat, nearly 13% below the 86.7 million mt harvested during the same period in the previous year, according to the agricultural ministry.
Russia’s wheat output is likely to decline in marketing year 2021-22 due to dry weather conditions in the Urals and Volga.
Platts Analytics scaled down its marketing year 2021-22 projection for Russia’s wheat crop to 77.6 million mt from 80.2 million mt. It had harvested 85.9 million mt of wheat in marketing year 2020-21.
In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published Sept. 10, the USDA estimated Russia’s marketing year 2021-22 wheat output at 72.5 million mt.
Analysts said that the dry conditions in major growing regions may also dull the prospects of the wheat crop in marketing year 2022-23.
They added that this autumn, Russia’s plantation of winter wheat for marketing year 2022-23 may be lower due to the dry weather.