Shipping is offering the world an energy security “cushion”, with 1.7 billion barrels of crude oil currently at sea.
The research department of Xclusiv Shipbrokers, led by Dimitris Roumeliotis and Eirini Diamantara, analysed data from the Signal Ocean Platform. According to the findings, 1,467 crude oil tankers are currently sailing loaded with a total of 1.7 billion barrels of crude oil.
These vessels were chartered before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and are already en route to their destinations. Of the 1.7 billion barrels, more than 60% is destined for the Asia–India region. As John Cotzias, co-founder of Xclusiv and president of the Hellenic Shipbrokers Association, told Naftemporiki, this volume effectively provides a strategic buffer equivalent to at least 85 days of exports from the Persian Gulf.
More specifically, if we take into account that production in the Arabian Gulf stands at around 20 million barrels per day, of which 17.2 million barrels are loaded onto tankers daily, the 1.7 billion barrels currently at sea represent a safety reserve of at least 85 days—provided that all the chartered vessels currently sailing complete their voyages.
“This is not a figure that should be overlooked,” Cotzias stressed.
According to the data analysed by Xclusiv, Saudi Arabia accounts for the largest share of crude exports from the Persian Gulf, at 33.3%. It is followed by the United Arab Emirates with 20.2%, Iraq with 19.6%, Kuwait with 8.5%, Iran with 7.9%, Oman with 5.8%, and Qatar with 4.6%.
In terms of destinations, 23% of exports go to China, 11.3% to Japan, 11.2% to Singapore, 11% to South Korea, 10.5% to India, 3.2% to Taiwan, 2.9% to the United States, 2.9% to Thailand, 2.8% to Malaysia, and 1.4% to Vietnam.
Overall, 86.5% of volumes—or 6.2 billion barrels annually (17.2 million barrels per day)—are transported by VLCCs, 10.3% by Suezmax tankers, and 2.8% by Aframax vessels.
Regarding the 1.7 billion barrels currently at sea, 30.1% is expected to arrive in China, 8.4% in India, 7.5% in Singapore, 6.6% in South Korea, 6.4% in the United States, 5.7% in Japan, 3.8% in the Netherlands, and 2.7% in Malaysia.
60.1% of the quantities are loaded on VLCCs that can carry 300,000 tons of crude, 20.2% on Suezmaxes that carry up to 150,000 tons and 18% on Aframaxes that carry up to 115,000 tons.
Source: Naftemporiki