2026 is expected to be another year of strong fluctuations for the tanker market.
History shows that it is difficult to predict the course of the tanker market, as markets are global, highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and highly competitive.
However, according to brokers at Poten & Partners, during the year, the main characteristics of the market will be affected, at least, by the reduction in the size of the sanctioned fleet, the increase in oil production in Venezuela, the reduction in Russian exports, the cut in production by OPEC+ and, finally, by the reduction in the orderbook.
Sanctions
As Poten reported, the fleet of tankers under sanctions has been growing steadily every year since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
During 2024 and 2025, a number of ships were added to the sanctions lists of the US, EU and UK, bringing the sanctioned fleet to 1,306 tankers by early 2026, according to TankerTrackers.com.
This fleet is aging rapidly, and the stricter enforcement of sanctions has significantly limited its employment opportunities.
Following the removal of President Maduro and the US taking control of the Venezuelan oil industry, sanctioned tankers are no longer acceptable in this market.
The main challenge to this assessment is the fact that the recycling of sanctioned ships is a highly complex process and, as a result, remains extremely limited to date.
Venezuela
According to analysts, under US supervision, Venezuela’s production and exports will increase by 250,000 barrels per day this year.
Over the past two decades, oil production in Venezuela, the country with the world’s largest proven reserves, has fallen dramatically, as a result of mismanagement, corruption, low oil prices and US sanctions.
At the end of December 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated the country’s production at 0.99 million barrels per day.
Russian crude
Despite the ongoing escalation of sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian crude oil production and exports have shown remarkable resilience.
Russia has rapidly built up a large “shadow fleet” and has managed to redirect its exports from traditional European markets to China, India and Turkey.
President Trump has increased tariffs on India, while the EU is moving to ban imports of refined products derived from Russian crude.
According to Poten, pressure on Russia will intensify further and Russian crude exports in 2026 will be significantly lower than in 2025.
OPEC+: Freezes oil production increases
During 2025, OPEC+ countries lifed part of the voluntary production cuts they had implemented during the pandemic.
In total, the eight main OPEC+ countries restored about 2.2 million barrels per day.
At its December meeting, the organization announced that it would “freeze” further production increases in 2026.
Most analysts and oil market organizations (IEA, EIA) estimate that the market will find itself in a state of oversupply in 2026.
Although geopolitical tensions have kept prices at relatively high levels at the beginning of the year, they estimate that prices will decline thereafter, leading OPEC+ to new production cuts in 2026.
The order book for tankers over 10,000 dwt stood at 61.6 million gross tons (GT) at the end of 2025, up 10.7 million GT compared to the end of 2024.
Tanker shipbuilding, which had collapsed in 2020-2022 due to the pandemic, recovered strongly thanks to the spectacular improvement in freight rates.
Shipowners with strong liquidity have embarked on an extensive fleet renewal program, amid a sharp aging of the existing tonnage.
However, Poten estimates that 2025 will prove to be the peak for new orders.
Source: Naftemporiki