Russia’s oil exports via its western sea ports in November may fall by some 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) after ample supplies in September-October as domestic refineries are expected to raise runs as seasonal maintenance ends, three sources familiar with the plans said.
Urals, Siberian light and KEBCO crude oil exports from Primorsk, Ust-luga and Novorossiisk ports are set to decline by some 300,000 bpd from October to slightly above 2 million bpd, according to the sources familiar with the preliminary plan.
Russia’s primary idle refining capacity is set to decline by 63% in November from October to 1.64 million tons leaving less oil for export, according to Reuters calculations based on sources’ data.
Russia has pledged to preserve an oil export cut of 300,000 bpd until the end of the year. Most recently Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that cut includes both oil and oil products.
Russia banned oil product exports in the end of September resulting in higher oil exports in October.
Still, the November refinery throughput plan could be adjusted, traders said, depending on the length of the oil product export ban and on domestic fuel prices.
“Fundamentally we expect a decline in November Urals exports, though the oil product ban was something no one expected, so it is difficult to predict exports given such sudden government decisions,” a source in Russian oil market said.
The expected decline in November exports could support Urals prices in Asian ports, traders said, but noted rises in freight rates and issues with price cap regulations and compliance with banks continue to weigh on differentials.