US soybean crop seen improving after recent favorable weather in Midwest

Employees working at cargo ship Kypros Land which is loading soybeans to China at Tiplam terminal in Santos, Brazil, Merch 13, 2017. Picture taken March 13, 2017. REUTERS/Paulo Whitaker

The outlook for the US soybean crop is improving after recent rains in the Midwest raised prospects for the yield and production.

While the US Department of Agriculture on Sept. 10 raised its MY 2021-22 production estimate by 35 million bu from August to 4.374 billion bu, S&P Global Platts Analytics is looking for 4.5 billion bu. The USDA also increased its estimate of the yield for the 2021-22 marketing year (September-August) by 0.6 bu/acre to 50.6 bu/acre, while Platts Analytics puts the yield at 51 bu/acre.

The USDA sees the US soybean crush for MY 2021-22 at 2.180 billion bu, down 25 million bu from August, while Platts Analytics sees it at 2.250 billion bu. The USDA cited a lower forecast for domestic soybean meal disappearance.

US soybean exports are forecast at 2.09 billion bushels, up 35 million bu from August due to increased supplies and lower prices, while Platts Analytics expects shipments of 2.1 billion bu.

According to the USDA report, the US soybean ending stocks for MY 2021-22 was raised 30 mil bu from August to 185 million bu. That is lower than the Platts Analytics estimate of 215 million bu.

Compared with Platts Analytics estimates of $13/bu, the US season-average soybean price for MY 2021-22 is forecast at $12.90/bu, down 80 cents from last month, the USDA said.

Soybean complex
The US soybean meal production estimates for 2021-22 were seen at 51.4 million st, down 0.65 million st on the month, while the ending stocks was held steady on August estimates at 500,000 st, the USDA said.

The soybean meal price is forecast at $360/st, down $25/st on the month, according to the report.

The US soybean oil production was estimated at 25.4 billion lb, down 0.290 billion lb, while the soybean oil price forecast was unchanged at 65 cents/lb.

The 2021/22 foreign oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher beginning stocks and lower production, exports, and crush, according to the USDA report. Higher beginning stocks for China and higher U.S. ending stocks account for most of the global 2021-22 soybean ending stocks increase, which were raised 2.7 million mt to 98.9 million mt, the USDA said. Another notable oilseed change includes higher soybean meal imports for India as the government allows shipments of soybean meal made from genetically modified soybeans through Oct. 31, it said.

Source: Platts